Seminars

The wicked learning environment of regression toward the mean

Economics & Decision Sciences

Speaker: Emre Soyer
Ozyegin

4 May 2017 - T017 - From 1:30 pm to 2:30 pm

Download

The environment in which people experience regression toward the mean inhibits accurate learning and valid intuitions in many domains, including medicine, sports and management. In predictive tasks, regression effects are only salient in rare cases where cues take extreme values. People often experience regression away from the mean. Furthermore, errors from predictions that ignore regression effects correlate highly with those of optimal predictions. In diagnostic tasks, people fail to recognize regression effects because they are motivated to seek causal explanations. Causes are attributed to easily identifiable factors that make good stories. A simple heuristic can overcome these inferential difficulties. In predictive tasks, a “50/50 rule” that gives equal weight to the cue and the mean of the target variable approximates optimal performance. In diagnostic tasks, the same rule can be used to generate non-causal counterfactuals to challenge possible causal candidates.

title : TBA

Economics & Decision Sciences

Speaker: Harry Di Pei
Northwestern

12 February 2019


title : TBA

Economics & Decision Sciences

Speaker: François Geerolf
UCLA

18 December 2018


title : TBA

Economics & Decision Sciences

Speaker: Marko Tervio
Aalto

13 December 2018


Title : TBA

Economics & Decision Sciences

Speaker: Olivier Deschenes
UCSB

29 November 2018


title : TBA

Economics & Decision Sciences

Speaker: Emmanuele Tarantino
Mannheim University

27 November 2018



JavaScriptSettings