Research seminars

Sovereign credit risk and exchange rates: Evidence from CDS quanto spreads

Finance

Speaker: Mikhail Chernov
UCLA Anderson School of Management

3 May 2018 - T015 - From 2:00 pm to 3:15 pm

Download

Sovereign CDS quanto spreads { the difference between CDS premiums denominated in U.S. dollars and a foreign currency { tell us how fnancial markets view the interaction between a country's likelihood of default and associated currency devaluations (the twin Ds). A noarbitrage model applied to the term structure of quanto spreads can isolate the interaction between the twin Ds and gauge the associated risk premiums. We study countries in the Eurozone because their quanto spreads pertain to the same exchange rate and monetary policy, allowing us to link cross-sectional variation in their term structures to cross-country differences in fscal policies. The ratio of the risk-adjusted to the true default intensities is 2, on average. Conditional on the occurrence default, the true and risk-adjusted 1-wee probabilities of devaluation are 4% and 75%, respectively. The risk premium for the euro
devaluation in case of default exceeds the regular currency premium by up to 0.4% per week.

Finance

Speaker: Adrien Matray
Princeton University

12 April 2018 - T004 - From 11:15 am to 12:30 pm


Entrepreneurial Wages

Finance

Speaker: Paige Ouimet
UNC Kenan–Flagler Business School

5 April 2018 - From 2:00 pm to 3:15 pm

Download

Do young firms pay less? Previous studies have argued that employees earn less when they join young firms. Using US Census employer-employee matched data, we confirm lower average wages at new firms. However, after including worker fixed effects, nearly two thirds of this decline disappears, suggesting differences in worker quality at new firms. Moreover, once we control for
firm fixed effects, absorbing time invariant firm quality, the wage difference between new and established firms becomes economically unimportant. Overall, our findings indicate that, for a given worker who has job opportunities at similar quality new and established firms, the expected wage penalty of going to work at the new firm are, on average, economically insignificant.

Swap Trading after Dodd-Frank: Evidence from Index CDS

Finance

Speaker: Haoxiang Zhu
MIT Sloan School of Management

22 March 2018 - From 2:00 pm to 3:15 pm

Download

The Dodd-Frank Act mandates that certain standard OTC derivatives, also known as swaps, must be traded on swap execution facilities (SEFs). Using message-level data, we provide a granular analysis of dealers' and customers' trading behavior on the two largest dealer-to-customer SEFs for index CDS. On average, a typical customer contacts few dealers when seeking liquidity. A theoretical model shows that the benefit of competition through wider order exposure is mitigated by an endogenous winner's curse problem. Consistent with the model, we find that order size, market conditions, and customer-dealer relationships are important empirical determinants of customers' choice of trading mechanism and dealers' liquidity provision.

Nonbank Lending

Finance

Speaker: Sergey Chernenko
Fisher College of Business

15 March 2018 - T004 - From 2:00 pm to 3:15 pm

Download

We provide novel systematic evidence on the terms of direct lending by nonbank financial institutions. Analyzing hand-collected data for a random sample of publicly-traded middle-market firms during the 2010-2015 period, we find that lending from nonbank financial institutions is substantial, with 30% of all loans being extended by nonbanks. Firms are more likely to borrow from a nonbank lender if local banks are poorly capitalized and less concentrated. Nonbank borrowers are smaller, riskier, and significantly more likely to have negative EBITDA. Nonbank lenders are less likely to include financial covenants in their loans, but appear to engage in substantial ex-ante screening: origination of nonbank loans is associated with larger positive announcement returns while ex-post performance is not distinguishable from bank loans. We also find that nonbank borrowers pay about 200 basis points higher interest rates than bank borrowers do. Using fuzzy regression discontinuity design and matching techniques generates similar results. Overall, our results provide evidence of market segmentation in the commercial loan market, where bank and nonbank lenders utilize different lending technologies and cater to different types of borrowers.


JavaScriptSettings