Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision

Richard Bradley, Casey Helgeson, B. HILL

Philosophy of Science

July 2017, vol. 84, n°3, pp.500-522

Departments: Economics & Decision Sciences, GREGHEC (CNRS)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model