State of the Art
How to Improve Decision Making
This in-depth dossier features the latest and cutting-edge research findings on decision making from HEC Paris' professors. We hope that the tools presented will help you think your decision making from new angles and to elaborate appropriate strategies in various situations, especially during these times of uncertainty.
A New Theory in Economics Helps Predict Future Events
When will be the next financial crisis? Who is going to win the next US presidential elections? How do we create beliefs about such events? By understanding how probabilistic beliefs form, economic theorists can now explain and predict phenomena that depend on rational beliefs. Latest research by Rossella Argenziano and Itzhak Gilboa equips economic modeling with a theory and a set of tools of belief formation, based on statistics and psychology. Some of the immediate applications are the equilibrium selection in coordination games.
A New Definition of Comparative Ambiguity Attitude
HEC Paris Ph.D. student Fan Wang unveiled a new definition of ambiguity attitude during the latest D-TEA conference on decision making, organized by HEC Paris Professor Itzhak Gilboa. This was acknowledged and congratulated by decision-theory expert Peter Wakker. In this interview, Mr Wang explains what does he brings both to the field of decision sciences and to practice.
The Uncertainty Across Disciplines Project
We, individuals and society, are faced today with many important decisions involving radical degrees of uncertainty. To better communicate on the current state of knowledge about uncertainty, and incorporate it into decisions, Brian Hill, CNRS and HEC Paris Professor of Economics and Decision Sciences, initiated the Uncertainty Across Disciplines project.
3 Objectives to Create Intelligence in the Face of Uncertainty
Uncertainty is an invisible trap, set to blind our capacity to avoid nonsense and create actual intelligence. Why invisible? Because uncertainty is powered by what we do not know, which is particularly difficult to become aware of. Anne-Sophie Chaxel, HEC Paris Associate Professor of Marketing and expert in cognitive biases, gives three objectives to keep in mind to embrace uncertainty, along with practice tool boxes to create intelligence.
Cash Management in Times of Crisis
Fears about economic depression following the pandemic lead most entrepreneurs to restructure their company drastically in order to secure their cash and prevent future liquidity crises. Etienne Krieger, Associate Professor on the Education Track at HEC Paris, explains the main challenges for entrepreneurs when major economic crises occur and their room for manoeuvre in terms of operations and finance. Such crises paradoxically provide a unique opportunity to rethink business models.
Optimal Firm Management and Welfare Maximizing Policies
In early 2020, the European Research Council (ERC) granted €450 million for Europe’s long-term research, because “Europe’s future depends on science and research", reminded Mariya Gabriel, European Commissioner for Innovation, Research, Culture, Education and Youth. Among 185 winning researchers, with expertise ranging across all fields, HEC Paris Professor Bruno Biais was awarded for his research project in finance, entitled "Welfare, Incentives, Dynamics, and Equilibrium". He explains it in this interview.
Social Distancing: What Will the Economic Fallout Be?
On March 14 and 15, France instituted a series of social-distancing measures to combat the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus. How much have these measures reduced the active workforce and how will the economy be affected? HEC Paris associate professor of finance Jean-Noël Barrot and his co-authors conducted a study, based initially on French data, to answer these pressing questions.
How Telework Contributes to the Exacerbation of Geographical Disparities
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a very significant use of teleworking in some occupations. But due to different employment composition, telework opportunities are greater in large cities compared to small cities. Social distancing measures therefore may lead to a re-examination of geographical disparities. While teleworking allows many jobs in larger cities to be adapted more easily in the short term to new circumstances, it can also lead to moving some of such jobs away from these cities in the longer term.
Is It Rational to Stockpile in Times of Crisis?
The health crisis caused by COVID-19 has triggered an economic one. We observe a significant portion of the population fearing shortage of primary consumption goods and marked stockpiling behavior. Because such behavior increases the risk of shortage, several stores have decided to ration some goods, and governments have had to make public announcements to reassure consumers that there would be no shortage. Avoiding consumer stockpiling is hence one of the key aspects of the management of this crisis. But is it rational to stockpile in times of crisis? We review and discuss the rational and irrational aspects of such behavior.