How to Deal With Severe Uncertainty?
Severe uncertainty, deep uncertainty, radical uncertainty, ambiguity… different actors in a range of fields – decision scientists, risk analysts, climate scientists, central bankers – use a variety of phrases to talk of some extreme, important yet too often ignored form of uncertainty. But what is it? And how should we deal with this particular species of uncertainty: how should we characterise it, communicate it, and decide in the face of it? In this interview, CNRS Research Director and HEC Paris Research Professor Brian Hill explains the concept and unveils applicable tools based on theoretical models for guiding decisions in situations of severe uncertainty.
How Do Governments And Individuals Make Decisions In A Time Of Crisis? The Case Of The Coronavirus
Why different countries have made very different decisions to fight the coronavirus? What are the potential consequences of such crisis on the psychology of the population? In this interview, Anne-Sophie Chaxel, HEC Paris Associate Professor of Marketing specialized in consumer behavior and decision-making, explains the different approaches of governments toward their responsibility, and the biases behind non-optimal behaviors and decisions. She also shares her recommendation regarding decision-making processes.
Yes, You Can Be Trained To Make Better Decisions
Mental distortions known as cognitive biases often shifts our judgement away from rational prescriptions. While such biases are normal – it's just the way our brains are wired – they can lead to poor choices, sometimes with disastrous consequences. But new evidence shows how simple training can help us identify these biases and tremendously improve decision-making.
Thinking About Time Flying? It Can Affect Your Decision-Making
When the clock in our minds ticks loudly, it changes not only our perspective of the time remaining in our lives, but also how we process information. A trio of researchers investigated how thinking about the concept of time can affect our decision-making. This unique piece of research could explain biases in hiring, voting, and many other contexts.
The Impact of Overconfidence and Attitudes towards Ambiguity on Market Entry
For many people who have started their entrepreneurial adventure, the biggest challenge is to believe in yourself. Yet, for those who choose this path, confidence can also make the entrepreneur underestimate actual business risks, leading to fatal decisions. Researchers of HEC Paris Business School and Bocconi University offer a new explanation for why decision-makers often appear too confident, and shed light on the consequences of this characteristic.
Academic Entrepreneurship: who owns patents and businesses?
Researchers have investigated the effect of the transfer of intellectual property rights from researchers to employing universities, in the USA and in Europe. While the effect of this act is positive in the US (more production and therefore competitiveness), the effect is negative in Europe (fewer creations). Interview with Thomas Astebro, professor of entrepreneurship at HEC Paris.
Scientific research: should negative results be published?
Many call for a systematic publication of scientific negative results in order to make the production of scientific knowledge more efficient. Raphaël Lévy, Assistant Professor in the Economics and Decision Sciences Department, explains why such dissemination of knowledge may actually be beneficial, but also points to potential undesired consequences.
Decision-making: do you need a decision theorist… or a shrink?
Human beings are notoriously bad at making rational decisions. Even theoretical models designed to help you find the “right” answer are limited in their applications. A trio of researchers calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory, arguing that basic tools can improve decision-making by challenging underlying assumptions and uncovering psychological biases.