Skip to main content
About HEC About HEC Faculty & Research Faculty & Research Master’s programs Master’s programs MBA Programs MBA Programs PhD Program PhD Program Executive Education Executive Education Summer School Summer School HEC Online HEC Online About HEC Overview Overview Who
We Are Who
We Are
Egalité des chances Egalité des chances HEC Talents HEC Talents International International Campus
Life Campus
Life
Sustainability Sustainability Diversity
& Inclusion Diversity
& Inclusion
Stories Stories The HEC
Foundation The HEC
Foundation
Coronavirus Coronavirus
Faculty & Research Overview Overview Faculty Directory Faculty Directory Departments Departments Centers Centers Chairs Chairs Knowledge Knowledge Master’s programs Master in
Management Master in
Management
Master in
International Finance Master in
International Finance
Specialized
Masters Specialized
Masters
Ecole Polytechnique
-HEC programs Ecole Polytechnique
-HEC programs
Dual-Degree
programs Dual-Degree
programs
Visiting
students Visiting
students
Certificates Certificates Student
Life Student
Life
MBA Programs MBA MBA Executive MBA Executive MBA TRIUM EMBA TRIUM EMBA PhD Program Overview Overview HEC Difference HEC Difference Program details Program details Research areas Research areas HEC Community HEC Community Placement Placement Job Market Job Market Admissions Admissions Financing Financing Executive Education Executive Masters Executive Masters Executive Certificates Executive Certificates Executive short programs Executive short programs Online Online Companies Companies Executive MBA Executive MBA Infinity Pass Infinity Pass Summer School Youth Programs Youth Programs Summer programs Summer programs HEC Online Overview Overview Degree Program Degree Program Executive certificates Executive certificates MOOCs MOOCs Summer Programs Summer Programs
Faculty & Research

Policymakers' uncertainty - Anna Cieslak

24 Mar
2022
3:00 pm
Jouy-en-Josas
English

Participate

Add to Calendar
2022-03-24T15:00:00 2022-03-24T16:00:00 Policymakers' uncertainty - Anna Cieslak Finance Speaker : Anna Cieslak (Duke University)   Jouy-en-Josas

Finance

Speaker : Anna Cieslak (Duke University)

 

We study how uncertainty affects decision-making in the context of monetary policy. We exploit the rich informational content of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings to construct text-based measures of uncertainty that policymakers confront as well as policy preferences they express. Our identification relies on the regular structure of the FOMC meetings, which separate discussions of the economic environment from policy deliberations. By distinguishing different sources of uncertainty related to inflation, the real economy, financial markets, and models in the economy round of the meeting, we show their distinct effects on policy preferences. In particular, heightened inflation uncertainty and, to some degree, uncertainty about the real economy lead to an amplification rather than attenuation of the monetary policy response to the macroeconomy. This fact presents a departure from certainty equivalence frequently assumed in monetary models and contrasts with the oft-referenced conservatism principle of policymaking under uncertainty. Instead, the evidence suggests that policymakers display some preference for robustness to avoid costly outcomes. We discuss quantitative implications of our findings for models of optimal monetary policy.

Participate

Add to Calendar
2022-03-24T15:00:00 2022-03-24T16:00:00 Policymakers' uncertainty - Anna Cieslak Finance Speaker : Anna Cieslak (Duke University)   Jouy-en-Josas