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Faculté et Recherche

The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference

13 juin
2019
14H00
Jouy-en-Josas
Français

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2019-06-13T14:00:00 2019-06-13T15:15:00 The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference ECONOMICS & DECISION SCIENCES DEPARTMENT Speaker : Larry SAMUELSON (Yale University) HEC Campus - Building S - Room S121 Jouy-en-Josas

DEPARTEMENT ECONOMIE & SCIENCES DE LA DECISION

Intervenant : Larry SAMUELSON (Yale University)

HEC Campus - Bâtiment S - Salle S121

« The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference » 

(joint with George J. Mailath)

Abstract

“Crowds” are often regarded as “wiser” than individuals, and prediction markets are often regarded as effective methods for harnessing this wisdom. If the agents in prediction markets are Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then the no-trade theorem implies that we should see no trade in the market. But if the agents in the market are not Bayesians who share a common model and prior belief, then it is no longer obvious that the market outcome aggregates or conveys information. In this paper, we examine a stylized prediction market comprised of Bayesian agents whose inferences are based on different models of the underlying environment. We explore a basic tension—the differences in models that give rise to the possibility of trade generally preclude the possibility of perfect information aggregation.

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2019-06-13T14:00:00 2019-06-13T15:15:00 The Wisdom of a Confused Crowd: Model-Based Inference ECONOMICS & DECISION SCIENCES DEPARTMENT Speaker : Larry SAMUELSON (Yale University) HEC Campus - Building S - Room S121 Jouy-en-Josas