Gilles STOLTZ

Affiliate Professor

Economics & Decision Sciences

stoltz@hec.fr http://stoltz.perso.math.cnrs.fr/

Biography

Gilles Stoltz is an alumnus of the Ecole Normale Supérieure of Cachan and holds a Ph.D.from the University Paris-Sud Orsay since 2005.

His research interests focus on the sequential prediction of arbitrary sequences, both from an industrial viewpoint (prediction of electricity consumption or air-quality forecasting) and from a game-theoretic viewpoint (when players aim at forecasting each other's actions).

He is a researcher for CNRS at the GREGHEC laboratory. In addition, he is an affiliate professor at HEC, where he teaches the foundations of statistics in the bachelor programme.

He was awarded in 2008 the Marie-Jeanne Laurent-Duhamel prize of the young statistician by the French statistical society.

Personal web page: http://stoltz.perso.math.cnrs.fr/

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Scientific articles

Fundamentals and exchange rate forecastability with simple machine learning methods

Journal of International Money and Finance, November 2018, vol. 88, pp 1-24, (in coll. with C. AMAT, T. K. MICHALSKI)

Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Might

Review of Economics and Statistics, May 2013, vol. 95, n° 2, pp 591-616, (in coll. with T. K. MICHALSKI)

Explore first, exploite next: the true shape of regret in bandit problems

Mathematics of Operations Research, Forthcoming, (in coll. with A. GARIVIER, P. MENARD)

A primal condition for approachability with partial monitoring

Journal of Dynamics and Games, July 2014, vol. 1, n° 3, pp 447-469, (in coll. with S. MANNOR, V. PERCHET)

Set-Valued Approachability and Online Learning with Partial Monitoring

Journal of Machine Learning Research, October 2014, vol. 15, pp 3247-3295, (in coll. with S. MANNOR, V. PERCHET)

Forecasting electricity consumption by aggregating specialized experts

Machine Learning, February 2013, vol. 90, n° 2, pp 231-260, (in coll. with M. DEVAINE, P. GAILLARD, Y. GOUDE)

Kullback-Leibler upper confidence bounds for optimal sequential allocation

Annals of Statistics, June 2013, vol. 41, n° 3, pp 1516-1541, (in coll. with O. CAPPE, A. GARIVIER, O.-A. MAILLARD, R. MUNOS)

Mirror descent meets fixed share (and feels no regret)

Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, 2012, vol. 25, pp 980-988, (in coll. with N. CESA-BIANCHI, P. GAILLARD, G. LUGOSI)

Lipschitz Bandits without the Lipschitz Constant

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2011, vol. 6925, pp 144-158, (in coll. with S. Bubeck, J. Yuan Yu)

Pure exploration in finitely-armed and continuous-armed bandits

Theoretical Computer Science, April 2011, vol. 412, n° 19, pp 1832-1852, (in coll. with S. Bubeck, R. Munos)

Books

Exercices d'oral de mathématiques BL - ECE - ECS corrigés et commentés par leurs auteurs

Ellipses 2015

Statistique mathématique en action

Vuibert 2012

Statistique mathématique en action

Vuibert 2009

Proceedings

Professional Obsolescence in IT: The Relationships between the Threat of Professional Obsolescence, Coping and Psychological Strain

2015 ACM SIGMIS Conference on Computers and People Research , 2015 , Newport Beach (T. SETOR, D. JOSEPH)

Introducing System Controls for Control Theory

25th Australasian Conference on Information Systems , 2014 , Auckland (S. M. NUWANGI, D. SEDERA)

Trusting the AVATAR: Antecedents and Moderators of Trust for Using the Virtual World

Best Paper Proceedings of the 2010 Academy of Management Meeting , 2010 , Montreal (S. Chandra)

Vendor's Perspective on Social Capital and Absorptive Capacity for Offshore Contract Performance

Academy of Management Proceedings , 2009

A Finite-Time Analysis of Multi-armed Bandits Problems with Kullback-Leibler Divergences

24th Annual Conference on Learning Theory : COLT11 , 2011 , Budapest (O.-A. Maillard R. Munos)

Lipschitz Bandits without the Lipschitz Constant

ALT 2011 - Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Algorithmic Learning Theory , 2011 (S. Bubeck, J. Yu)

Online multi-task learning with hard constraints

Proceedings of COLT09. Omnipress , 2009 (O. Papaspiliopoulos, G. Lugosi)

Hierarchical optimistic optimization

Proceedings of NIPS'08, Curran Associates, Inc. , 2008 (S. Bubeck, C. Szepesvári, R. Munos)

Constraining the Consumption Environment to Enhance Consumer Creativity

Comforting Social Presence, Depleting Social Influence

Advances in Consumer Research, Vol. 36 , 2008

Working papers

Forecasting Exchange Rates Better than the Random Walk Thanks to Machine Learning Techniques

Cahier de Recherche du Groupe HEC , 2014

Do countries falsify economic date strategically? Some evidence that they do

Cahier de Recherche du Groupe HEC , 2010

A finite-time analysis of multiarmed bandits problems with Kullback-Leibler divergences

Mimeo , 2011

Robust approachability and regret minimization in games with partial monitoring

Mimeo , 2011

Forecasting the electricity consumption by aggregation of specialized experts ; application to Slovakian and French country-wide hourly predictions

Mimeo , 2010