Most decisions have consequences that are uncertain and materialize in the future. Perception of uncertainty may be biased when it regards the future. Indeed, recent research led by Emmanuel Kemel, Professor of Economics and Decision Sciences at HEC Paris and CNRS researcher, and Corina Paraschiv, Professor at LIRAES, has found that people are more likely to take risks if the consequences of their decision aren’t felt immediately.
By Emmanuel Kemel
How good are students at using tools like ChatGPT? In particular, can they properly evaluate and correct the responses provided by ChatGPT to enhance their performance? An experiment on HEC Paris students set to find out. Its results contribute to the debate on the consequences of the use of ChatGPT in education, and in work in general.
Artificial Intelligence has a potentially disruptive impact on organizations, firms, and society at large. The latest mind-boggling illustration came with the discovery of chatGPT’s mesmerizing results in November 2022. This followed a fall of investments in AI last year in Silicon Valley. From analyzing data in one’s business to increasing customer engagement and replacing humans in routine tasks across industries, AI is becoming more relevant to our lives and economy every day. Everyone talks about it, but do we really understand its opportunities and threats? And how can we make the best out of it, whilst ensuring that ethical requirements are met?
On the eve of the 11th annual D-TEA conference, promoting Dialogues between Theory, Experimental findings and Applications of decision-making (hence the acronym), we talk to its co-organizer Professor Itzhak Gilboa. Last year, the professor of decisions sciences was ranked by Stanford University in the world’s top six theoretical economists. Gilboa’s research centers on decision under uncertainty and decision models whereby uncertainty can’t be quantified. That is called non-Bayesian decision models – as opposed to the Bayesian approach which assigns probabilities based on experience or best guesses. The HEC Paris academic questions these axioms, or self-evident truths. He believes his research can help answer unforeseen crises, called black swans, like the war in Ukraine, health pandemics or the climate crisis. Extracts.
The latest developments in artificial intelligence are often allied to the prospect of a better world, with more powerful, more rational algorithms straightening out human flaws. The idea often floated is that public policy will be more effective because it will be better informed and more responsive. Likewise, it is said that medicine will deliver speedier, more accurate diagnoses. But where are we when it comes to the subject of consumption? Can algorithms be used to steer consumers towards better, more enlightened – and less impulsive – choices? Why not? Online assessments about a product or service, for instance, help information flow more smoothly. But we are also heading down a new path: myriad algorithms are now the power behind “nudges”, those fine details about the shopping environment that insidiously guide the choices made by consumers.
How much information one needs to provide to decision makers to respect transparency while keeping its competitive edge? In a new study using a mathematical probabilistic model, HEC Paris professors in Economics and Decision Sciences Frederic Koessler, Marie Laclau and Tristan Tomala, find the optimal equilibrium of information to reveal for companies in a situation where there are competitors.
By Tristan Tomala , Marie Laclau , Frédéric Koessler
When trying to figure out the outcome of a given situation, or the fallout of a sudden event, is it better to reason by analogies and resort to past experience or to think ahead and apply probabilistic reasoning? Researchers present a new mathematical model on making decisions in uncertain circumstances, which takes into account both modes of reasoning.
By Stefania Minardi , Itzhak Gilboa
The world is constantly evolving and uncertain. However, if there is one certainty it is the need to remain humble. To better build the resilience needed to manage this change and uncertainty in a responsible way, find key findings and classic advice from HEC Paris researchers to decipher environments at all levels: from one’s own career to geopolitical business links. In this In-Depth issue, you will learn that family businesses focus more on resilience than on performance, that connecting private interests and sharing with the community is vital for sustainable objectives and that developing professional and personal resilience takes practice. You will also discover how hybrid governance and smart cities can overcome disrupted supply chains and fight social inequality. Find the PDF version of the Knowledge@HEC' In-Depth issue here.
This special issue aims to show the excellence and diversity of the research conducted by HEC Paris PhD candidates and alumni. You will find a selection of cutting-edge findings, answering crucial questions such as: Is AI a threat to human creativity? Should we listen to the Wall Street gurus? How to better manage one’s promotion? How much do we value our private data? What are ambiguity and risk attitudes? How bad is the mere presence of a phone? HEC Paris PhD Program, headed by finance professor Johan Hombert, supports its students throughout their thesis writing and job placement in the best universities and business schools, such as the MIT, Wharton and Harvard Business School. Most PhD alumni continue to collaborate with professors at HEC, thanks to the strong relationships they have developed during their journey.
Although popular wisdom assumes that virality is a random and thus unmanageable process, research by Haris Krijestorac (HEC Paris), Rajiv Garg (Goizueta Business School, Emory University) and Vijay Mahajan (University of Texas) finds several ways for marketers and content creators to design and promote their digital media in ways that significantly increase the likelihood of these media achieving virality and sustaining it. Interview with Haris Krijestorac, Assistant Professor of Information Systems.
By Haris Krijestorac
