Black Swans and Other Challenges to Rational Decision Making
When trying to figure out the outcome of a given situation, or the fallout of a sudden event, is it better to reason by analogies and resort to past experience or to think ahead and apply probabilistic reasoning? Researchers present a new mathematical model on making decisions in uncertain circumstances, which takes into account both modes of reasoning.
Managing change and uncertainty
How to Build Business and Career Resilience
The world is constantly evolving and uncertain. However, if there is one certainty it is the need to remain humble. To better build the resilience needed to manage this change and uncertainty in a responsible way, find key findings and classic advice from HEC Paris researchers to decipher environments at all levels: from one’s own career to geopolitical business links. In this In-Depth issue, you will learn that family businesses focus more on resilience than on performance, that connecting private interests and sharing with the community is vital for sustainable objectives and that developing professional and personal resilience takes practice. You will also discover how hybrid governance and smart cities can overcome disrupted supply chains and fight social inequality. Find the PDF version of the Knowledge@HEC' In-Depth issue here.
HEC Paris Trains Future Professors
Our PhD Students Got Talent
This special issue aims to show the excellence and diversity of the research conducted by HEC Paris PhD candidates and alumni. You will find a selection of cutting-edge findings, answering crucial questions such as: Is AI a threat to human creativity? Should we listen to the Wall Street gurus? How to better manage one’s promotion? How much do we value our private data? What are ambiguity and risk attitudes? How bad is the mere presence of a phone? HEC Paris PhD Program, headed by finance professor Johan Hombert, supports its students throughout their thesis writing and job placement in the best universities and business schools, such as the MIT, Wharton and Harvard Business School. Most PhD alumni continue to collaborate with professors at HEC, thanks to the strong relationships they have developed during their journey.
When Videos Become Viral: Why, How and What Consequences?
Although popular wisdom assumes that virality is a random and thus unmanageable process, research by Haris Krijestorac (HEC Paris), Rajiv Garg (Goizueta Business School, Emory University) and Vijay Mahajan (University of Texas) finds several ways for marketers and content creators to design and promote their digital media in ways that significantly increase the likelihood of these media achieving virality and sustaining it. Interview with Haris Krijestorac, Assistant Professor of Information Systems.
How Believing in Unsubstantiated Claims Leads to Polarization
The COVID-19 pandemic has fostered the sharing of conflicting and unsubstantiated claims by public figures. Early November, a deeply divided nation elected Joe Biden as the President of the United States. A recent research published by professors Anne-Sophie Chaxel of HEC Paris and Sandra Laporte of Toulouse School of Management reveals that individuals believe in unsubstantiated claims when shared by favorite public figures, explaining polarization in opinions. In this article, Anne-Sophie Chaxel explains how rational people come to strongly believe in unchecked claims.
State of the Art
How to Improve Decision Making
This in-depth issue features the latest and cutting-edge research findings on decision making from HEC Paris' professors. We hope that the tools presented will help you think your decision making from new angles and to elaborate appropriate strategies in various situations, especially during these times of uncertainty. Find the review here.
A New Theory in Economics Helps Predict Future Events
When will be the next financial crisis? Who is going to win the next US presidential elections? How do we create beliefs about such events? By understanding how probabilistic beliefs form, economic theorists can now explain and predict phenomena that depend on rational beliefs. Latest research by Rossella Argenziano and Itzhak Gilboa equips economic modeling with a theory and a set of tools of belief formation, based on statistics and psychology. Some of the immediate applications are the equilibrium selection in coordination games.
A New Definition of Comparative Ambiguity Attitude
HEC Paris Ph.D. student Fan Wang unveiled a new definition of ambiguity attitude during the latest D-TEA conference on decision making, organized by HEC Paris Professor Itzhak Gilboa. This was acknowledged and congratulated by decision-theory expert Peter Wakker. In this interview, Mr Wang explains what does he brings both to the field of decision sciences and to practice.
Uncertainty Across Disciplines
We, individuals and society, are faced today with many important decisions involving radical degrees of uncertainty. To better communicate on the current state of knowledge about uncertainty, and incorporate it into decisions, Brian Hill, CNRS and HEC Paris Professor of Economics and Decision Sciences, initiated the "Uncertainty Across Disciplines" project, interviewing 10 leading experts on the topic of uncertainty.
3 Objectives to Create Intelligence in the Face of Uncertainty
Uncertainty is an invisible trap, set to blind our capacity to avoid nonsense and create actual intelligence. Why invisible? Because uncertainty is powered by what we do not know, which is particularly difficult to become aware of. Anne-Sophie Chaxel, HEC Paris Associate Professor of Marketing and expert in cognitive biases, gives three objectives to keep in mind to embrace uncertainty, along with practice tool boxes to create intelligence.