Second Paris Conference on the Macroeconomics of Expectations

Thursday 6 June - room S218

13:15 – 15:00: First session

Guido Ascari (De Nederlandsche Bank & CEPR), with Paolo Bonomolo, Alessandro Celani
The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Expectations: The Distribution Matters    

Manuel Menkhoff (Ifo Institute)
The Devil is in the Tail: Macroeconomic Tail Risk Expectations of Firms

Silvia Miranda-Agrippino (Federal Reserve Bank of New York & CEPR), with Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi
On The Aggregate Consequences of Belief Distortions    

15:00 – 15:30: Coffee break

15:30– 17:15: Second session

James Mitchell (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), with Edward Knotek, Mathieu Pedemonte, Taylor Shiroff
The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance

Marco Lombardi (Bank for International Settlements), with Fiorella De Fiore, Albert Pierres Tejada
Fiscal stimulus plans and households' expectations

Eleonora Granziera (Norges Bank)
Speaking of Inflation: The Influence of Fed Speeches on Expectations, joint with Greta Meggiorini (University of Auckland), Leonardo Melosi (University of Warwick) and Vegard Larsen (BI Norwegian Business School)

17:15 – 17:30: Coffee break

17:30 – 18:30: Keynote speaker

Michael Weber (University of Chicago & CEPR)
Consumer Inflation Expectations: Global Evidence

Friday 7 June - room S218

9:00 – 10:45: Third session

Ryan Chahrour (Boston College), with Adam Hale Shapiro, Daniel Wilson
News Selection and Household Inflation Expectations    

Jonathan Adams (University of Florida)
Optimal Policy Without Rational Expectations: A Sufficient Statistic Solution

Luigi Iovino (Bocconi University & CEPR), with Davide Debortoli, Nicola Pavoni, Donghai Zhang
Macroeconomic Expectations and Limited Awareness    

10:45 – 11:15: Coffee break

11:15– 12:45: Fourth session

Adrien Couturier (LSE), with Marco Bellifemine (LSE), Seyed Hosseini Maasoum
A distributional theory of household sentiment    

Cristina Angelico (Bank of Italy)
The Green Transition and Firms’ Expectations on Future Prices: Survey Evidence

Jochen Mankart (Deutsche Bundesbank), with Alexander Ludwig, Jorge Quintana, Mirko Wiederholt
Heterogeneity in Expectations and the Level of House Prices

12:45 – 14:00: Lunch at conference room

14:00 – 15:00: Keynote speaker

Ricardo Reis (LSE & CEPR)
The People Versus the Markets: A parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations

Organising Committee:
Tobias Broer (PSE, IIES Stockholm University and CEPR)
Gaetano Gaballo (HEC and CEPR)
Erwan Gautier (Banque de France)
Paul Hubert (Banque de France and Sciences Po - OFCE)
Alexandre Kohlhas (Oxford University)

Gaetano Gaballo acknowledges funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme (Grant agreement No 101088411).